🚨 Everywhere you look, it’s all bearish! How much of your position do you still have left?
1️⃣ Analysts are calling: BTC may form a bearish flag, with a target price pointing to 70,000. 2️⃣ Overseas version of Liangzi, James Wynn, is directly warning: Crypto and US stocks are about to face a bloodbath. 3️⃣ JPMorgan: Rate cut expectations are fully priced in, next comes a wave of profit-taking. When all voices are shouting “danger,” the market often won’t take the path you expect. The more aligned the sentiment, the more cautious you should be. So in the past two days, I’ve been thinking through a question: 🔍 If now is chaos, what might 2026 look like? The following three projections are all relatively optimistic but reasonable directions 👇
1️⃣ The macro environment of 2024–2025 is the extreme of extremes. High interest rates dragging on too long, US fiscal pressure, repeated geopolitical tensions, global inflation becoming entrenched… Any one of these factors could change asset pricing, but now they’re all happening together. Historical experience shows: A period when macro factors are collectively distorted needs 1–2 years for a “reset.” This means: → 2024–2025 will be a period of cleansing and mispricing → 2026 is likely to be the start of valuation system reconstruction → Major trends often emerge at this kind of moment
2️⃣ AI is supporting US stocks in 2024–2025, but crypto’s real value lies elsewhere. Aside from MEME, AI hasn’t yet formed a large-scale business model on-chain. Meanwhile:
RWA is being fully commercialized
Stablecoin volume is hitting record highs
Institutional demand for on-chain finance is clearly rising
Financial infrastructure is becoming more mature
In other words: Growth is already starting, you just can’t feel the explosive power yet. Extend these trends to 2026? → A truly sustainable and profitable on-chain business model may emerge.
3️⃣ Nasdaq and NVDA are strong, BTC is weak—this divergence won’t be the endgame. This isn’t the first time: similar “macro extremes → asset reversion” phases occurred in 2016 and 2020. When macro conditions shift from distortion back to balance, asset correlations will converge again. In other words: → Traditional markets and crypto markets → In 2026, they’ll likely enter a new phase together
At the end of the day, these are just projections. Everyone’s portfolio structure is different, as are their mentality and judgment. How the market moves isn’t up to me, or to the analysts. Only time will give the final answer. But one thing is ironclad: 📍 No matter what the market looks like next year, the chips of wealth have already been quietly redistributed. I even believe— 20% of people have already been washed out. They don’t even know why they’re out, they just know they ended up as chips in someone else’s game. The more chaotic the market, the clearer you have to stay. Because the real big cycle often begins when the whole market can’t see it coming.
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🚨 Everywhere you look, it’s all bearish! How much of your position do you still have left?
1️⃣ Analysts are calling: BTC may form a bearish flag, with a target price pointing to 70,000.
2️⃣ Overseas version of Liangzi, James Wynn, is directly warning: Crypto and US stocks are about to face a bloodbath.
3️⃣ JPMorgan: Rate cut expectations are fully priced in, next comes a wave of profit-taking.
When all voices are shouting “danger,” the market often won’t take the path you expect.
The more aligned the sentiment, the more cautious you should be.
So in the past two days, I’ve been thinking through a question:
🔍 If now is chaos, what might 2026 look like?
The following three projections are all relatively optimistic but reasonable directions 👇
1️⃣ The macro environment of 2024–2025 is the extreme of extremes.
High interest rates dragging on too long, US fiscal pressure, repeated geopolitical tensions, global inflation becoming entrenched…
Any one of these factors could change asset pricing, but now they’re all happening together.
Historical experience shows:
A period when macro factors are collectively distorted needs 1–2 years for a “reset.”
This means:
→ 2024–2025 will be a period of cleansing and mispricing
→ 2026 is likely to be the start of valuation system reconstruction
→ Major trends often emerge at this kind of moment
2️⃣ AI is supporting US stocks in 2024–2025, but crypto’s real value lies elsewhere.
Aside from MEME, AI hasn’t yet formed a large-scale business model on-chain.
Meanwhile:
RWA is being fully commercialized
Stablecoin volume is hitting record highs
Institutional demand for on-chain finance is clearly rising
Financial infrastructure is becoming more mature
In other words:
Growth is already starting, you just can’t feel the explosive power yet.
Extend these trends to 2026?
→ A truly sustainable and profitable on-chain business model may emerge.
3️⃣ Nasdaq and NVDA are strong, BTC is weak—this divergence won’t be the endgame.
This isn’t the first time: similar “macro extremes → asset reversion” phases occurred in 2016 and 2020.
When macro conditions shift from distortion back to balance,
asset correlations will converge again.
In other words:
→ Traditional markets and crypto markets
→ In 2026, they’ll likely enter a new phase together
At the end of the day, these are just projections. Everyone’s portfolio structure is different, as are their mentality and judgment.
How the market moves isn’t up to me, or to the analysts.
Only time will give the final answer.
But one thing is ironclad:
📍 No matter what the market looks like next year, the chips of wealth have already been quietly redistributed.
I even believe—
20% of people have already been washed out.
They don’t even know why they’re out,
they just know they ended up as chips in someone else’s game.
The more chaotic the market,
the clearer you have to stay.
Because the real big cycle often begins when the whole market can’t see it coming.