$ADA This recent price move, to be honest, is pretty ruthless.

Looking at the 24-hour capital flow data, outflows have exceeded $10 million. What’s even worse is that the 4-hour long liquidations are 18.5 times higher than short liquidations—what does this number mean? A large number of leveraged long positions are being forcefully closed, and these passive sell orders are accelerating the decline.

Now, let’s look at the technicals. The $0.423 level has become an awkward spot: it’s both the previous rally’s high and now the starting point where bears dominate. The price is following a downward channel, and although the RSI has dropped to 35.38, which looks oversold, in the context of continuous net outflows, this kind of "oversold" is often a trap. History tells us that when capital is fleeing, a technical indicator recovery is actually a better shorting opportunity.

If you want to get in on this downtrend, don’t rush to chase the shorts. Wait for a rebound.

Key levels:
- **0.4200-0.4230**: First rebound resistance zone, you can consider probing with a small position
- **0.4260-0.4300**: This is the dividing line between bull and bear, the area with the best risk-reward ratio
- **0.4370**: If the price breaks through here, stay on the sidelines for now and set a strict stop loss

Support below is around 0.4090 and 0.4000, and in an extreme scenario, we might see 0.3900.

Simply put, in a clear downtrend, the most profitable strategy isn’t trying to catch the bottom, but following the direction of main capital flows. When capital is flowing out on the 4H, 8H, 12H, 24H, and even 7-day timeframes, the market has already given its answer.

Trading is a game of probabilities—do the high-probability trades. A rebound is not a reversal; it’s an opportunity.