Recently, I’ve been chatting with a few old friends in the crypto circle, and everyone’s discussing the same topic—does Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle still work? The real concern isn’t whether the cycle has disappeared, but whether Wall Street’s entry will completely rewrite these rules.

Let me start with a fact many people don’t know: those so-called “long-term holders” aren’t all die-hard believers who hold to the end. On-chain data over the past few years has repeatedly shown that many of them are more like old foxes who trade the big cycles—they distribute their chips at bull market tops and slowly accumulate again at bear market bottoms. This group of true cycle players turns over about 25%-30% of the total BTC supply. You might think that’s not a high percentage, but it’s exactly this amount that’s enough to sway the overall market trend.

Now, let’s look at institutions. Many people assume that once ETFs and Wall Street money enter, retail investors are completely out of the game. In reality, ETF plus all kinds of institutional holdings currently account for only about 12%. On the surface, that seems like a lot, but these people aren’t what you think—they’re not BTC believers, but standard risk-control driven players. Have you noticed? After BTC hit new highs, the inflow of these funds slowed significantly, and there were even some small-scale outflows. What does this mean? It means they’re calculating, not holding blindly.

So, here’s my conclusion: the “self-fulfilling” logic of the cycle still holds true. Why? Because the chips that can truly influence the trend are still mostly in the hands of OGs who understand and play the cycle. When these people sell at the right time and buy at the right time, the market naturally follows their rhythm. As long as the main holders continue to operate based on the 4-year pattern, no matter how hard you try to fight the bear market, you won’t be able to change it.

Will the cycle ever be broken? Yes, but with a caveat—it’ll only happen once 30%-40% of BTC is absorbed by “non-cycle believers” who only look at macro factors. For example, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices—these types of long-term capital. By then, the market logic might really change. But now? We’re far from that point.

However, the existence of institutions has indeed changed one thing: after this bull run ends, it’s very likely we won’t see those terrifying -78% drawdowns of the past anymore. ETFs essentially act as shock absorbers, making panics less extreme. But don’t get it twisted—a drop is still coming, and a -50% correction is still a reasonable DCA (dollar cost averaging) range. My advice is to ladder in gradually—don’t expect to catch the absolute bottom in one go.

Lastly, a word about rate cuts. If there is really a rate cut in December, it’ll definitely be bullish for BTC, but this positive effect won’t be immediate. You’ll need to see whether the US economy can hold up, whether ETF funds start flowing back in, and whether fiscal stimulus continues. All these variables together will determine whether BTC will take off right after the rate cut.

In short, the cycle is still here, but the way to play it needs to evolve along with the market structure.