George Tharenou, Chief Economist at UBS Australia, recently put forward a viewpoint—the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might actually be about to take action this time.

In the past, the RBA focused on headline CPI; whenever prices rose, they hiked rates—very straightforward logic. But this time is different. They've switched to a new monitoring metric: the trimmed mean of core inflation. When this figure approaches 3.0% year-on-year, the rate hike trigger is pulled. Clearly, the central bank believes this number better reflects the true pulse of the economy and is more reliable than the overall CPI.

Tharenou reviewed historical data and concluded: according to the RBA’s usual response pattern, the current inflation level has already reached the threshold for a rate hike. In other words, the question isn’t if a rate hike will happen, but when.

What does this mean for the crypto space? Not good news.

Once a rate hike lands, monetary conditions will inevitably tighten. The market will immediately get jittery, worrying about a hard economic landing, and investors’ risk appetite will shrink instantly. High-volatility assets—especially cryptocurrencies—will be among the first to get sold off. Where does the money go? To safe-haven assets like government bonds and gold. Short-term pressure is a sure thing.

What’s worse, traditional market risk-free yields will rise accordingly. As government bond yields go up, the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies will be diluted. Funds will flow back into traditional finance, with major coins bearing the brunt, and small- to mid-cap projects suffering even more. Price pressure and liquidity drying up—this script has played out too many times before.

There’s one more concern: if the RBA acts, will other central banks follow? If the market starts betting on a global tightening wave, crypto will be facing not just a localized shock, but a systemic liquidity crisis. Even mainstream coins wouldn’t be able to withstand it, let alone altcoins.

In short, keep a close eye on the RBA’s moves—this round of action could make some serious waves.