2025-12-04 22:35:01

Prediction markets are heating up. Latest odds on Polymarket show traders increasingly betting on U.S.–Venezuela tensions escalating into military action. The probability curve tells a story: 24% by mid-December, jumping to 38% before year-end, and surging to 61% by late March 2026. Market sentiment clearly pricing in rising geopolitical risk.

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ConfusedWhale

· 1h ago

61% probability? Dude, those odds are way too intense. Feels like the market is betting on something that's pretty unlikely to happen.

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consensus_whisperer

· 14h ago

Hmm... this probability curve is a bit scary. Is 61% for real?

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MetaMaximalist

· 23h ago

polymarket pricing geopolitical black swans before mainstream media even catches wind... this is exactly why prediction markets matter for actual signal extraction, not just speculation theater

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SnapshotLaborer

· 12-04 23:04

Whoa, how crazy is this probability curve? It jumps straight to 61% at the end of March?

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ChainSherlockGirl

· 12-04 23:04

Hey, I can see the trick with this probability curve—it jumped straight from 24% to 61%... There must be some big players pushing it behind the scenes. From my analysis, this wave is definitely driven by wealthy people "pricing in" geopolitical risk, and the onlookers are just following the crowd.

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gm_or_ngmi

· 12-04 23:02

61%? This probability increase is just too outrageous. It feels like the prediction market has gone crazy.

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GateUser-a5fa8bd0

· 12-04 22:51

Damn, the probability is increasing way too fast... Is it really going to break out into a fight?

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CoconutWaterBoy

· 12-04 22:35

Damn, this probability curve is a bit crazy. Is it for real that it shot up to 61% this fast?