ETH's recent price movement has been unpredictable, but a piece of news from last night might change many people's outlook—the US November ADP private employment data showed a direct cut of 32,000 jobs.

What does this number mean? It's the sharpest drop since March last year. What's even more severe is that small businesses saw the highest number of layoffs in nearly three years. The market reacted immediately: the CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a rate cut in December is now approaching 90%.

Honestly, this is almost a done deal.

So, what does this mean for the coins we hold? The logic isn’t complicated: weak employment data forces the Fed to consider easing monetary policy, expectations for the dollar weaken, global liquidity has room to improve, and risk assets naturally benefit.

BTC has already rallied from its lows, and now the key is whether it can hold the $93,000 level. ETH and BNB are also reacting accordingly.

But—don’t pop the champagne just yet.

First, ADP is just a reference indicator; the official non-farm payroll data won’t be released until December 16th, which is a few days after the Fed’s policy meeting. There are too many variables in between. Second, the Fed is in a pretty awkward spot right now: on one hand, employment may be cooling, but on the other, inflation (especially the PCE data coming out tonight) isn’t fully under control yet. Whether Powell will soften his stance or stay hawkish is the key factor that will determine if the next market move is a real breakout or a fake-out.

The current situation feels more like: the door to rate cuts has been pushed halfway open by the data, but whether we can truly step through depends on how the Fed signals next week. The market is celebrating in advance, but whether the party actually starts still awaits the final verdict.

Do you think the rate cut will happen as scheduled this time, or will there be any surprises?