#ETH走势分析 🔥Raoul Pal dropped a deep-water bomb in Dubai: A "trillion-dollar liquidity frenzy" may emerge in 2026.

Let’s start with a mind-bending point—those who keep chanting about the "four-year halving cycle" might need to hit the books again. Raoul Pal comes with data: Bitcoin’s price trend has an eerily high correlation with global M2 money supply; the new all-time high in 2024? That’s just the appetizer for the real liquidity feast.

Looking back through the history books, you’ll find an interesting coincidence. This round’s pullback is about 35%, almost identical twins with the 38% in 2016 and 33% in 2020—classic mid-bull market shakeouts. The key signal is the Fed’s balance sheet: once it gets back above $8.5 trillion in Q1 2025, the floodgates of liquidity are pretty much fully open.

**When will alt season arrive? There are two keys.**

The first is double confirmation: the US ISM Manufacturing Index must break above the 50 boom-bust line, and the total stablecoin supply needs to surpass the $200B mark. The second is more straightforward—watch the money flow. BTC’s market cap dominance needs to fall below 40%(it’s stuck at 43.7% now), and if ETH/BTC ratio breaks above 0.06, that’s basically the green light.

As for which sectors could produce dark horses? Keep an eye on these three: Depin devices surpass 50 million, AI Agents hit over 100 million daily interactions, and RWA TVL rockets to $80 billion.

**How can retail investors survive?** Allocation isn’t complicated: 50% BTC, 30% ETH, 15% SOL, and 5% cash as a base. Just keep your monthly DCA deviation within 3%. If you really want to mine the data gold, look at protocols with real on-chain yields, like EigenLayer’s LST staking APY over 5%, or projects with daily new staking above 20,000 ETH.

There are three red lines you must never cross: leverage above 2x, holding more than 8 coins, or trading more than 5 times a week. These are fatal moves.

⚠️ **Let’s correct three common cognitive biases.**

Worried AI will threaten the crypto market? Data says otherwise. AI companies themselves hold over $30 billion in crypto assets, with MicroStrategy alone accounting for 47%. On-chain AI agent wallets are still growing at 12% monthly.

Worried about token inflation? Let’s do the math. Global pension funds’ potential allocation scale is as high as $2.3 trillion, while new token annual emissions only account for 4.7% of total circulating market cap—this incremental supply is a drop in the bucket.

As for regulatory pessimism, G20 nations have already completed 68% of crypto legislation, and compliant capital inflows are up 340% year-over-year. The market is sprinting towards regulation, not off a cliff.

🎯 **Countdown battle plan comes in two stages.**

Stage one(Q4 2024 to Q2 2025): Buy the dips in major L1s, trigger grid buys if there’s a 20% pullback. Keep an eye on CME Bitcoin futures open interest—breaking $12 billion is a key signal.

Stage two(Q3 2025 to Q1 2026): Start allocating to potential altcoin gems—projects with FDV under $5 billion and protocol revenue growing over 200% per year. As a hedge, consider buying $100,000 strike BTC call options and shorting the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Lastly, remember the core defensive line: if global M2 YoY growth drops below 3%, or BTC weekly closes below $58,000, immediately switch to a defensive portfolio. The market won’t give you advance notice, but the data will.

$ETH How will this play out? Follow liquidity’s lead.