Is the Bank of Japan really about to make a move this time? There’s a lot more going on beneath the surface.

Let’s start with the obvious: the central bank claims to be independent, but in reality, the government’s shadow is always there. This time, there’s open talk about raising interest rates—there’s no way that would happen without official approval. So here’s the real question: why the green light now?

Let’s break down the domestic political scene. Sanae Takaichi was originally a pro-easing figure—not shy about printing money. But with the yen in freefall, things have changed! Ordinary people are getting sticker shock at the supermarket. Energy costs are soaring, everything imported is more expensive, and if this keeps up, social unrest could erupt. The reality is that people’s livelihoods outweigh monetary theory.

Internationally, the plot thickens. The US keeps pressuring Japan to leave room for monetary policy moves—in plain terms, to sync up with the dollar’s pace. And with US-Japan tariff talks happening, Japan showing some flexibility might win them better trade terms. See? Monetary policy is a bargaining chip in diplomacy—this is what real big-power games look like.

Now, look at the economic fundamentals—it's grim. Q3 saw the economy shrink, both domestic and external demand are weak, and government debt is astronomical. Hiking rates with this background? It’s like walking a tightrope. So don’t expect them to start any real “rate hike cycle”—at most, it’ll be a token move. The monetary environment will stay loose, because otherwise, any hope of economic recovery dies and a debt crisis could explode at any moment.

Bottom line: this rate hike is a compromise born out of multiple forces at play. It’s not the central bank having a change of heart, and it’s not because the economy is actually improving. It’s just a desperate move, forced by public anger at home and international pressure. Even if they do hike, what happens next? That depends on circumstances—if the economic numbers slip, don’t be surprised if they immediately reverse course.

To all friends in the crypto market: keep an eye on this drama. Yen volatility, dollar strength or weakness, risk sentiment—every move could shake up your BTC, ETH, and ZEC holdings. When the macro winds change, the crypto world rarely escapes unscathed.