Starting at 8:30 PM tonight, the US is set to release a wave of economic data all at once. It’s like pressing a high-voltage defibrillator directly onto the market’s heart.

Here’s my straightforward view: this isn’t a routine data release—it’s a live-fire reconnaissance to test whether the Fed will cut rates. The market is like a pressure cooker tonight, and it’ll probably blow.

Let’s look at jobs first. US companies have been laying people off like crazy lately, with over 1.1 million layoffs so far. The wave of layoffs in tech and government just won’t stop. If tonight’s Challenger job cuts report and initial jobless claims (last time: 216,000) come in worse than expected, the market will get hyped immediately—bad data means the Fed is forced to inject liquidity.

This kind of “good news from pain” can give Bitcoin a short-term bounce, but don’t forget, the underlying logic is that the economy is heading downhill.

Jobs aren’t the only thing to watch. The Supply Chain Pressure Index and EIA natural gas storage numbers directly impact whether inflation will flare up. If logistics are jammed and energy is tight, inflation expectations rise, the Fed has to slam the brakes on rate cuts, and risk assets like crypto will get hit hard. On the flip side, smooth supply chains and ample energy mean rate cut expectations can keep building.

What’s the trickiest part? The market will be schizophrenic tonight: on one hand hoping for bad job data to force the Fed’s hand, on the other hand fearing an inflation rebound will kill any chance of rate cuts. This tug-of-war in expectations is the perfect recipe for major volatility. Bitcoin will likely swing wildly—direction? Who knows.

On the trading side, remember these points:

$93,000 is a key level to defend. If it holds, sentiment is still intact; if it breaks, next stop is $90,500.

Before and after the data release, market nerves will be stretched tight. High leverage? Don’t touch it.

The real trend will come from the next Fed meeting and the full nonfarm payrolls report—tonight’s moves might just be an appetizer.

Stay alert and flexible. On nights with this much news, risk control is a thousand times more important than predictions.