🔥 There's a major data release tonight

The US initial jobless claims numbers are about to be announced. While it might sound boring, for the crypto world it's basically a conductor's baton—the Fed watches it to gauge the economy’s temperature, and we watch it to see where BTC and ETH might move.

For the next 24 hours to a week, the market will most likely follow the lead of this data. Here’s a simple breakdown.

[From tonight to tomorrow: How to trade in the short term]

There are only two possible scenarios when the data comes out:

More unemployment claims than expected?
This means the economy is cooling down. The chances of the Fed cutting rates go up, and capital will flow into risk assets. BTC will likely see a quick pump, possibly in the 1%-3% range, and major coins will follow.

But don’t rush to chase the pump. After the price rises, there will likely be a pullback to shake out weak hands—waiting for a lower entry point is safer. While the short cycle looks strong, expect some choppiness in the short term.

Fewer unemployment claims than expected?
Strong jobs data means the economy isn’t cooling yet, so the Fed won’t be in a hurry to cut rates. The market will reassess risk, and sentiment will cool off. BTC could see a quick drop, with stronger bearish sentiment.

Don’t rush to bottom-fish here. Wait 1-2 hours to see the direction clearly—if volume doesn’t pick up on the rebound, keep watching and don’t force any trades.

[Next 3 to 5 days: How to judge the trend]

If the data is weak (good for crypto):
The market will start betting on earlier rate cuts, ETF inflows might return, and whales will start accumulating.

BTC will likely climb in a stepwise fashion, while ETH and SOL may perform even better. The overall structure will lean bullish.

If the data is strong (unfavorable for crypto):
Rate cut expectations will be pushed back, and inflows will decrease. BTC may move sideways with a bearish tilt, and altcoins will face more pressure and could get dumped.

In this case, don’t expect big moves in the next 3-5 days—position sizing is key.

[A few practical tips]

1. Don’t go heavy before the data release. The market usually compresses volatility first, waiting for a breakout.

2. After the release, watch the 15-minute candlestick and trading volume closely. Act only after the direction is confirmed.

3. If the news is positive, wait for a pullback before going long—don’t buy the top.

4. If the news is negative, don’t rush to catch the bottom—wait for the structure to stabilize.

5. Most importantly: don’t gamble on direction or go all-in. Use trend confirmation signals, not gut feelings, to make decisions.

The market is always smarter than you or me. Respect the data, respect the trend. In the short term, both BTC and ETH will be at the mercy of tonight’s numbers.