#数字货币市场洞察 There’s a major data release tonight at 21:30—the US weekly initial jobless claims.

The Department of Labor releases this every Thursday, and people in the forex world call it the "mini-NFP" because it gives an early indication of the job market’s direction. Don’t underestimate this data—it can have a big impact on the US dollar trend and cryptocurrency prices.

The logic isn’t complicated: if the actual number is higher than expected, it means more people are unemployed, so the dollar will likely fall; if the data is better than expected, the dollar tends to rise. As for the crypto market? It basically moves opposite to the dollar—when the dollar is strong, funds tend to flow back to traditional markets, and coins like Bitcoin are more likely to get dumped; when the dollar is weak, it gives crypto assets more room to rise.

In recent weeks, this data has been pretty steady, with actual figures consistently below market expectations. Tonight’s expected value is 220,000, and if the actual number can stay below this level, it’ll be a little surprise for the crypto market.

Right now, Bitcoin is bouncing back and forth at a key level. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a clear signal. If tonight’s data really beats expectations, the dollar might come under short-term pressure, and those funds on the sidelines could flow back into the crypto market. Bitcoin might seize the chance to break out of the current choppy range and start a decent move.

For those keeping an eye on macro data, keep a close watch on 21:30 tonight—the market’s short-term direction could be set at that moment.