Been digging into some prediction market plays lately. Here's a quick thought experiment worth sharing.

The setup? Hunt for bets sitting at 98% probability - think events resolving within 24 hours. The logic seems almost too simple: near-certain outcomes should equal near-guaranteed returns, right?

Ran some numbers using reasonable assumptions (plus maybe a dash of optimism about execution skills). The data tells an interesting story about risk-reward dynamics in these markets.

What makes this fascinating: it's not about being smarter than the market. It's about spotting structural inefficiencies where probability meets liquidity. The edge isn't in prediction - it's in understanding how these platforms price near-certainty.

Of course, "98% probable" isn't the same as "100% guaranteed." That 2% can bite hard if you're overleveraged. But for those who get position sizing right, these micro-edges compound differently than traditional trading setups.