The hype around the Ethereum upgrade has basically come to an end. This month, there are only two things left in the market worth speculating on: whether the Fed will cut interest rates, and who the new chair will be.

Recently, Trump has been frequently endorsing Hassett, sending a pretty clear signal. On prediction platforms, Hassett's odds of winning have soared to 90%, so it’s pretty much a done deal. If he really takes over in the end, this guy could become the most crypto-friendly Fed chair in U.S. history—at least on the surface.

But then again, being friendly is one thing; the real issue is whether he’s willing to cut rates quickly according to Trump’s wishes. I think this question will directly determine how long this current round of small-scale corrections will drag on.

Now, about that recent big move. The Fed suddenly injected $13.5 billion into the banking system, the second largest amount since the pandemic, and even bigger than any rescue during the dot-com bubble burst.

Some people are wondering if this means quantitative easing is on the way. I don’t think so. Normally, when the Fed starts pumping liquidity, risk assets should take a hit first, but the U.S. stock market barely reacted. This injection looks more like topping up a pool that's about to dry up—the stock market is soaring, retail investors are leveraging like crazy, and the leverage scale has hit a record high of $1.13 trillion, rising like a rocket.

In reality, the funds inside the market are almost drained. Rather than an active liquidity injection, the Fed’s move is more of a passive rescue. The data is clear: U.S. banks aren’t having an easy time, and this was essentially an emergency transfusion, indirectly reflecting a weakening economy.

So the conclusion is simple: short-term, it’s positive; long-term, it’s questionable. When the market is short on cash, relying on this bit of liquidity to kick off a new bull cycle is just not realistic. Right now, the entire market is hanging on to this month’s expectation of a Fed rate cut. Where things go from here all depends on how the policy cards are played.