2025-12-04 09:23:36

The end of the year is here again, and it's the season for institutions to brag.

Before rushing to look at the new forecasts for 2026, I think it's necessary to revisit the old ones—how many of those bold predictions from last year actually came true?

Think back to the end of 2024, when the market was red-hot, BTC had just broken $100,000, and all sorts of institutions were hyped up in their reports: BTC heading for $200,000, stablecoin market cap doubling, AI Agents set to ignite the on-chain ecosystem, crypto unicorns lining up to go public...

So what happened? A year has gone by, let's settle the accounts.

I specifically went back to review the predictions from several typical institutions and KOLs last year, checking them one by one. Some had an amazingly high hit rate, while others... let's just say it was a total trainwreck.

**VanEck’s “Disastrous” Faceplant**

Let's start with the worst. VanEck threw out 10 predictions at the end of last year—guess how many were correct?

The answer is 1. That's right, a success rate of only 10%.

The only thing they got right was that Bitcoin would become a strategic reserve asset. The other 9? All wrong, and not just by a little—they were completely off-base.

For example, they predicted the market would peak in Q1, BTC would hit $180,000, and set new highs by year-end—what actually happened was the opposite in both timing and price targets. Can you believe it?

Their market size predictions were also wishful thinking. They called for $50 billion in tokenized securities, but the actual figure was around $30–35 billion; DeFi total value locked (TVL) was expected at $200 billion

BTC-3.12%

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GweiWatcher

· 3h ago

Haha, VanEck really dropped the ball this time—only 1 out of 10 predictions was right. My random guesses are probably more accurate. --- Institutions pull this stunt every year. Last year they made a huge fuss, but when it’s time to face the music, they still can’t avoid failure. --- $180,000, $50 billion securities market... They sounded so confident, but in the end, reality went in the opposite direction. --- It’s like this every year—I’m numb to it now. Trusting institutional predictions is less reliable than trusting my own gut. --- VanEck getting slapped in the face is nothing; I bet there’ll be even more outrageous ones to come. --- 10% hit rate? I might as well roll dice—my odds would probably be better. --- Every time, they make bold claims, then get proven wrong. It’s a never-ending cycle. --- Tokenized securities missed by that much... Feels like these prediction reports are just for show, don’t take them seriously. --- Why do institutions keep doing this every year? Aren’t they afraid of getting dissed, or do they just assume nobody remembers anyway? --- To be honest, the only correct prediction was Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and that was probably luck, not foresight.

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AlwaysAnon

· 14h ago

Ha, VanEck’s predictions this time are really ridiculous—out of 10 predictions, only 1 was correct. You’d be better off rolling dice. Institutions love this play. They shout the loudest when the market is hot, but go silent the fastest when they’re proven wrong. To put it bluntly, it’s just gambling. If they guess right, they brag to the skies; if they’re wrong, they just publish a new report. After all, nobody holds them accountable.

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ForkYouPayMe

· 12-04 09:53

Haha, VanEck really messed up this time. Out of ten predictions, only one was correct. Their hit rate is worse than if I guessed randomly. This is how institutional reports are—they hype things up every year, and then pretend nothing happened afterward. Those predictions last year like $200,000 Bitcoin and an AI Agent explosion were already proven wrong. This year, they're just making up new stories. And wait, the DeFi TVL expectations are still way off. How do these people even have the nerve to keep publishing reports? Honestly, I just read these predictions for fun now. The real brave ones are those who actually believe them.

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FlashLoanLarry

· 12-04 09:50

Haha, VanEck really dropped the ball this time. Out of 10 predictions, only 1 was correct. I could have guessed better randomly. When it comes to predictions, on-chain data is far more honest. Another round of new scams is coming in 2026. Institutional reports are just for fun, don’t take them seriously, bro. Makes me think of all those “$200k BTC is not a dream” claims from last year—how did that turn out? So yeah, instead of waiting for their predictions, it’s better to analyze what’s actually happening on-chain yourself.

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TokenRationEater

· 12-04 09:45

Haha, VanEck really embarrassed themselves this time. How can they still publish reports with only a 10% hit rate? --- That's why institutional predictions are made to be traded against. --- Wait, AI Agent didn't take off? I thought that wave was hot last year. --- Everyone was betting, and in the end, all lost. No wonder nobody dares to hype things up this year. --- Unicorns lining up to go public... bold claim, do they think we're all drunk? --- VanEck's 10% success rate is barely better than my random guesses, haha. --- So why trust institutional predictions? Blindly going all-in is more reliable. --- Tokenized securities are $50 billion short? To hype it up with such a gap, that's some serious bluffing. --- DeFi aimed for $200 billion, but ended up with nothing. Really flopped hard. --- That's why I'd rather listen to community chatter than read institutional reports.

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GasFeeTherapist

· 12-04 09:43

Haha, VanEck's faceplant this time is truly textbook-level failure. Out of 10 predictions in a year, VanEck only got 1 right. That hit rate is worse than if I had just guessed randomly. Those predictions last year were absolutely outrageous. Good thing I didn’t believe all of them at the time. Institutions love to do this—come out bragging, and then a year later everything looks completely different. This is why you have to think for yourself and not get blinded by all these flashy predictions. The problem is, next year we’ll have to listen to them brag again, and this cycle never ends. With VanEck crashing so badly this time, I wonder if they’ll even dare to make predictions again this year.

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probably_nothing_anon

· 12-04 09:26

Haha, VanEck really dropped the ball this time—only 1 out of 10 predictions was correct, might as well have rolled dice. Those institutions that were bragging last year look like a joke now, I definitely don’t believe them anymore. It’s the same routine every year, just watch for fun, don’t take it seriously. Predictions are just shots in the dark—if they’re right, they’re called prophets; if they’re wrong, they just pretend it never happened. That’s why I only trust my own judgment. The most reliable way to use institutional reports is to do the opposite. Those DeFi numbers are always exaggerated too, reality always ends up being the opposite of expectations. It’s prediction season again for the new year—I bet 5 bucks most of them will flop again.

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