$BTC is currently playing out a bizarre "homecoming" scenario—but this time, the script is unlike any previous version.

At the core is a simple fact: after every bull market peak and subsequent crash, Bitcoin eventually climbs back to its 200-day moving average. This is its "survival instinct" written into its DNA. But this time, as if sensing some danger, it’s racing toward that line at an unprecedented speed.

In plain English:

**First, this is muscle memory.** If you comb through historical data, you’ll find that during every cycle’s deep correction, the 200-day moving average is always the most critical dividing line. When the price hits this line, it either finds support and rebounds, or breaks through it and falls off a cliff. It’s like the market’s ECG baseline.

**Second, the rhythm is completely off.** According to past halving cycles, this kind of “return to the moving average” usually happens in the later stages of a bull market, slowly and in order. Now, it feels like some kind of emergency retreat, happening at breakneck speed. When a market loses its inherent rhythm, the next move becomes highly unpredictable.

**Third, the moment of truth is here.** In the coming weeks, how the price reacts to this moving average will directly determine the fate of this cycle. Will it find support here and build momentum for a second wave up? Or will it break down decisively, signaling a premature end to the bull market? The answer lies in the next few candlesticks.

**To use a crude but accurate analogy:**
When your dog suddenly abandons its usual walking route and sprints home along the shortest path, there are usually only two reasons—either something’s happened at home (a fundamental crisis), or the dog got hurt outside (a structural market problem). Healthy dogs don’t run like that.

**A reminder for everyone still in the market:**
Don’t blindly trust that historical patterns will keep you safe. This “early stampede” is itself the biggest red flag, hinting that there may already be cracks forming under the surface. Volatility will be higher, and the traps more well-hidden. What you think is a “golden bottom-fishing opportunity” might actually be a carefully crafted liquidity trap.

Hope your positions can maintain their own rhythm on this chaotic track, instead of getting trampled in the panicked crowd.

(This article does not constitute investment advice. The only unchanging truth in the market is that all truths eventually fail.)