#美联储重启降息步伐 After ETH broke through 3200, you really need to stay calm at this level—the 3080 to 3100 line has now become the life-or-death dividing line. If it breaks below? It could head straight down to 2800 for support.

Yes, the price has risen, but don’t think 4000 is just around the corner. If the broader environment isn’t supportive, it’s all empty talk. Bitcoin is currently stuck at the 94150 hurdle and has been unable to break through for a while. ETH having an independent rally? Difficult. For now, you must closely watch the 3080-3100 support zone; if it breaks, you must consider reducing your position. Looking upward, 3300-3350 is a strong resistance—only a real breakout here would open up more room for upside. One more thing—the trading volume must keep up; if it’s a low-volume rally, it’s basically just a flash in the pan.

Want to reach 4000? Three hard indicators must be met:
First, Bitcoin has to lead the charge. If BTC doesn’t move, it’s tough for ETH to take off on its own.
Second, the Ethereum ecosystem has to deliver something real—actual effects from network upgrades, or new applications that can attract fresh capital, not just old money circulating in speculation.
Lastly, macro liquidity needs to cooperate, such as the Fed actually cutting rates or similar positive policies materializing, so that big money is willing to enter the market.

How to operate specifically? Let’s discuss by scenario:

For those holding positions: If your entry cost is low, you can keep holding and gradually lock in profits around 3300; if you have a heavy position, make sure you set a stop-loss—reduce your position if it drops below 3080, and exit completely if it breaks below 3000.

For those with no position and on the sidelines: If you’re aggressive, you can wait for ETH to pull back to the 3150-3180 range to test a small position, and stop out immediately if it falls below 3080. If you’re conservative, either wait for a high-volume breakout above 3300 to follow, or consider going short if it drops below 3080 and shows weak rebound.

For risk control, always remember the iron rule—a single trade’s loss should never exceed 2% of your total capital. Also, keep an eye on tonight’s US CPI data; if the inflation numbers are unfavorable, there could be an immediate short-term reversal.

Outlook: In the short term, if ETH can hold above 3300 within a week, we might see 3500. In the mid-term (one to three months), to aim for higher targets, we need to wait for the Bitcoin halving rally to truly start, or for a breakout application in the Ethereum ecosystem. The risk is, if 3000 is lost, it’s very likely to turn around and head directly for 2800 support.

Don’t just focus on price swings—first figure out how much risk you can bear. Protecting your principal is always more important than chasing gains or cutting losses—steady and methodical wins the race.