#ETH走势分析 $ZEC Let me tell you something a bit harsh.

I have a friend named Xiao Yezi, a typical technical analysis believer—he can recite moving average combinations backwards, tunes MACD parameters more precisely than anyone, and can recognize more than a dozen candlestick patterns.

Logically, someone like that should be able to navigate the market with ease, right?

But what happened? Last month, during that $ETH surge, he jumped in with full leverage as soon as he saw a golden cross signal on the daily chart, as if he was on a sugar high.

At that time, the price had already surged for three consecutive days and trading volume was increasing. From a technical perspective, it looked "perfect."

Xiao Yezi told me, "This one's solid, all the indicators line up."

I wanted to warn him, but swallowed my words—who hasn't paid their dues when they were young?

$BOB And then, the story played out in the most cliché way.

The night he entered, $ETH immediately reversed and tanked.

A long bearish candle wiped out the previous two days' gains, followed by several consecutive days of decline.

Xiao Yezi's account shrank at a frightening speed.

He stared at the charts every day, going from "I'll exit on a rebound" to "If it drops more, I'll average down," and finally to "Whatever, I'm not even looking anymore."

$ORCA When I later looked at his trading records, the problem was actually obvious.

The point he entered was already the tail end of the rally—there was a clear resistance ahead, the chip distribution showed a large pile of profitable positions, and turnover rate was starting to soar.

What do all these signals together mean?

It means a lot of people were already preparing to sell.

But Xiao Yezi was only focused on moving averages and MACD, completely ignoring "position," the most critical factor.

Technical indicators do give signals, but they never tell you—at this price, is it just getting started or almost at the top?

It's like a GPS only telling you "there's a road ahead," but never warning you "there's a cliff in front of you."

The biggest scam in the market isn't fake news, but the "perfect-looking" high-level signals.

Golden crosses can appear anywhere on a chart, MACD can turn green at any level, but if you don't look at what price range you're in, or how many profits are locked in above, these indicators become the most sophisticated traps.

What's more ironic is that on the third day after Xiao Yezi got trapped, $ETH actually bounced a bit.

He saw his unrealized losses narrow and immediately perked up: "See, I told you it would rebound!"

I didn't say anything.

Because I knew that kind of rebound is technically called a "bull trap"—the last chance for the main players to unload their positions.

Sure enough, two days later $ETH continued to fall, even harder than before.

Xiao Yezi was totally numb and started doubting the value of technical analysis: "What's the point of these indicators? When they say it'll rise, it falls. When they say it'll fall, it rebounds."

All I could do was give a wry smile.

It's not that indicators are useless; it's that he used them in the wrong context.

The essence of technical indicators is to help you judge the rhythm and sentiment of the market, not to directly tell you "buy" or "sell."

They're like thermometers—they can tell if you have a fever, but not what medicine to take.

The people who actually survive in the market aren't the ones who memorize the most indicator formulas, but those who know how to control their impulses at critical moments.

Observe when you need to, retreat when you must without hesitation, and don't be afraid to go aggressive when the time is right.

This sense isn't taught in books; it's honed through repeated real-money losses.

So, if you're the type who studies indicators, memorizes parameters, and draws lines every day, ask yourself a few questions first:

How far is the price from the previous high when you chase in?

Is the trading volume expanding or shrinking?

Is there a clear zone of trapped positions ahead?

Is market sentiment overheating or just starting to warm up?

If you can't answer these questions, no matter how precise your indicators are, they can't save you.

The market never lacks smart people; what it lacks are those who can stay rational in the face of temptation.

$IRYS $AKE $ARIA $YALA $RVV $MON $ARC $TRUST $MMT $TNSR $DYM $BEAT $MYX $NIL $DUSK $AIA $BTC $SOL