#美联储重启降息步伐 November’s US employment data is back to playing “Schrödinger’s job market”—company layoffs are off the charts, yet unemployment claims are surprisingly stable.

First, let’s look at layoffs: The Challenger report shows that in November, the number of corporate layoffs jumped to 153,000, with an annualized growth rate soaring to 175.3% and a month-on-month surge of 183%. In plain terms, almost twice as many people were laid off this month compared to last month. “Cost reduction and efficiency improvement” isn’t just a slogan anymore—companies are executing it ruthlessly.

But here’s the weird part: For the week ending November 29, the number of initial jobless claims was only 216,000—lower than the market expectation of 220,000. The four-week average nudged up to 223,750, and the number of continuing claims (for the week of November 22) was just 1.96 million, even slightly below expectations. What does this mean? Many people who got laid off might have quickly found new jobs—at least, that’s what the numbers on paper suggest.

Looking at other data: In November, the global supply chain pressure index dropped to -0.06, so supply chains are finally less strained; natural gas inventories (as of November 28) fell by 11 billion cubic feet, far below the expected 18 billion, indicating that energy demand still looks weak.

Now the question is: How should we interpret the combo of “fierce layoffs + stable unemployment claims”? Is the labor market really resilient, or has the shockwave from layoffs just not shown up in the unemployment data yet?

The next few months of jobs reports will be critical—they’ll directly impact the Fed’s rate-cut decisions and shape the market’s expectations for a recession. When the data is at odds like this, it’s often the ultimate test of traders’ nerves.