Why do I prefer technical analysis over fundamentals or news?

The core reason is: in the crypto world, aside from Bitcoin and a few mainstream coins, the vast majority are speculation, not investments.

That quote from Livermore had a big impact on me: “The biggest problem is mixing speculation with investment.” Many people claim they’re making value investments when they buy, but when the price drops, they stubbornly hold on, saying, “It’s okay, it will come back up.” But in reality, fundamentals change, so-called value disappears, investments turn into speculation, and there are countless examples of companies disappearing altogether.

So I simply don’t bother with value, nor do I fantasize about some “long-term oversold bounce back.” What I do is price spread trading. I don’t care how much the asset is worth, but rather how people in the market are moving and how the money is flowing.

The biggest problem with news analysis, for me, is that it’s lagging.

Take nonfarm payrolls or CPI, for example. Do you think the market only reacts the moment the data is released? In fact, layoffs have already happened, cash flow pressures already existed, and people have already sold assets and redeemed funds. By the time the data comes out, the market has usually already moved halfway.

Technical analysis, on the other hand, is simple and direct.
It doesn’t study value—it studies market sentiment, expectations, and behavior patterns.

Put simply, it’s the study of human beings’ repeated mistakes.

Of course, it’s normal for technical analysis to get a bad rap. After all, there are so many course sellers out there hyping up MACD, KDJ, and moving averages as if they’re magical, when in fact they’re all lagging indicators that are pretty much useless, which makes people think technical analysis is just a bunch of garbage.

But I can’t be bothered to argue. If you think it’s useless, then it’s useless for you.

Everyone has a different trading system. If our approaches differ, there’s no need to discuss.

For me, technical analysis is about studying the market, and the market is made up of people—so it will always be useful.