BTC's recent price action is really nerve-wracking.

I've been watching the 4-hour chart all afternoon, and honestly, the current situation is quite tricky: the 96,000 level is like a steel wall—can't break through it; below, the 92,000 and 89,000 support levels are still holding up, but the MACD just flashed a golden cross signal, and trading volume clearly shows signs of being overbought. Bulls aiming for 100,000? Bears preparing to retest 80,000? If you get the timing even slightly wrong, a lot of people might get trapped.

Let me talk about a few recent news items, each of which is pretty critical.

The US November ADP employment data was a complete flop, with only -32,000 added jobs—that's real negative growth. The weaker the economic data, the stronger the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut. In the short term, this is definitely positive sentiment for assets like BTC, since the anti-inflation narrative can start up again.

There have also been a lot of rumors about personnel changes. If Trump really nominates Hassett as the next Fed chair and Besant for the White House Economic Council, you know their style—they used to be hawkish but are now turning dovish. In the long run, looser policies are definitely good for crypto. But in the short term? Some funds might use "the policy hasn't landed yet" as an excuse to shake out the market, so don't just jump in because things look bullish right now.

There’s also been plenty of action at the SEC. The "Crypto Market Structure Bill" is about to be passed. Once the regulatory framework is clear, institutions will have more confidence to enter the market, which is a real positive. But as the saying goes—when all the good news is out, it’s often followed by a correction. You've seen enough pump-and-dump moves, right?

The technicals are even more interesting.

The current price is stuck in a key range: 96,000 is clearly the resistance on top, with 92,000 and 89,000 as the two support lines below. Even though MACD just showed a golden cross...