The day the $100,000 support was breached, the entire crypto community held its breath. On November 5, BTC plunged to a low of $99,075.89. But that was just the appetizer—the real bloodbath came in early December, showing just how ruthless the market can be: a single-day drop of nearly 6%, directly breaking through $86,000. Keep in mind, from the historical peak of $126,080 on October 6, in less than two months, the cumulative decline has already exceeded 31%.

Meanwhile, mainstream coins like Ethereum and Dogecoin didn’t escape unscathed, collectively plunging. Within 24 hours, more than 190,000 accounts were forcibly liquidated. The panic in the market was almost palpable through the screen.

But in reality, the crypto community is deeply divided on what this downturn actually means.

Optimists insist this is nothing more than a technical correction within a bull market. They point to the weekly RSI indicator—already nearing oversold territory, which is usually a sign of a short-term bottom. Plus, the Fed’s rate cut expectations are still providing support, and December has historically been a seasonally bullish month. Some models even boldly predict that between 2026 and 2027, BTC could reach new heights of $125,000 to $160,000.

Pessimists are much more sober. They note that in November, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $3.48 billion—which is no small figure. Even worse, long-term holders are continuing to offload their positions. Current data shows the probability of returning to $100,000 before the end of the year has fallen to 24%. Liquidity is drying up, and confidence is fragile—this is the true nature of the market.

Where do we go from here? The outlook depends on several key points:

In the short term, the $86,000 support is crucial. If it’s breached, the next support level may be around $80,400. Conversely, if BTC can effectively break through the $93,000 resistance, it might temporarily reverse the downtrend.

In the medium to long term, three variables will determine the trend: whether the Fed follows through with rate cuts, whether ETF fund flows can return to net inflows, and whether those veteran on-chain players will stop selling. These factors will ultimately decide whether the market continues to bottom out or sets the stage for the next explosive rally.