#美联储重启降息步伐 Can Ethereum break 4000? Let me pour some cold water on that idea first.

This rally has indeed been fierce, but hitting $4,000? There are still three big obstacles to overcome.

Let’s break down the first hurdle—technical weaknesses: Right now, the price is sitting above all moving averages, and the bulls do have the short-term advantage. However, the support zone at 3080 to 3100 must hold; if it fails, the price will have to fill the gap below. On the way up, 3300 to 3350 is the first major resistance—whether it can be breached depends on trading volume. If price rises on low volume, it can easily get slammed back down. Don’t forget about big brother Bitcoin—if BTC stays stuck around 94000 and doesn’t break higher, it’s highly likely ETH will just keep moving sideways.

Now let’s talk about the necessary conditions for a run at 4000—ETH can’t do it alone. Bitcoin needs to first push through $95,000 to set the pace for the market. Without big brother leading the way, little brother going at it alone is basically a dead end. What about the actual effects of the Cancun upgrade? Have gas fees really come down? Can the restaking track attract new incremental funds? These ecosystem stories need to keep playing out—it can’t just be hype on a slide deck. On the macro side, expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar index also need to align for big institutional money to actually come in.

How should you operate specifically? Let’s categorize by cost basis: If your cost is below 3100, you can keep holding; when price approaches 3300, sell one-third to lock in profits. If your position is heavy, remember to set a dynamic stop-loss—if it drops below 3080, cut half your position, and if it breaks 3000, exit entirely. For those on the sidelines, aggressive traders can try a small long position if price pulls back to 3150–3180, but don’t exceed 10% of your capital and set a strict stop-loss at 3080. Conservative traders should wait for a strong breakout above 3300 before chasing, or find a rebound to short if price falls below 3080. Don’t let a single trade lose more than 2% of your total capital—don’t let choppy markets knock you out.

What about timing? In the short term (within a week), if ETH can hold above 3300, there’s a chance to test 3500. In the mid-term (1–3 months), whether the Bitcoin halving trend continues and whether killer apps appear in the Ethereum ecosystem will determine if 4000 can be reached. But if it drops below the psychological level of 3000, a pullback to 2800 is also possible.

This rally is of course a good thing, but don’t let short-term surges cloud your judgment and make you chase blindly.

Here are two reminders: a breakout doesn’t mean sustained gains—the real opportunities are often found in pullbacks; Bitcoin is the true market indicator, and Ethereum can’t make big moves alone.

Protecting existing profits is always more practical than betting on overnight riches. Also, keep a close eye on tonight’s US CPI data—if inflation comes in higher than expected, a short-term pullback is inevitable. Hold when you should, run when you need to—don’t fight the market!