#ETH走势分析 12.4 Morning Market Observation

$ETH This surge has been quite strong. Looking at the hourly chart, it jumped straight from 2970 to the intraday high of 3216. After a series of bullish candles, a small bearish candle appeared for a pullback, and now it's hovering around 3188. This kind of movement is actually quite common—a typical accelerated rally pattern, where the price breaks out with volume and then pulls back to confirm support. However, the small bearish candle at the high is also a reminder that the short-term bullish momentum is starting to tire, and some people may be taking profits.

From an indicator perspective, after breaking the upper Bollinger Band at 3196, the price pulled back slightly and is now moving within the upper-middle band range. This is standard action for a strong trend—breakout, pullback, and confirmation. The key is whether it can hold the middle band at 3103; if it does, the trend remains intact.

KDJ has already entered the overbought zone, indicating a possible sideways movement or a minor correction in the short term. On the MACD side, although DIF is still above DEA, the gap is narrowing and the bars are negative, showing early signs of a bearish crossover. In simple terms, the uptrend may need a breather.

Looking ahead, if the price can hold the intraday consolidation level at 3150 and trading volume keeps up, it's possible to test 3216 or even surge to 3250. But if KDJ remains overbought along with a MACD bearish crossover, it could enter a 1-4 hour level consolidation or pullback. For support below, first watch the middle Bollinger Band at 3100; if that breaks, a pullback to around 3050 is possible.

For trading, consider light long positions if it pulls back to the 3170-3140 range, with a target of 3230-3265.

The above is just personal opinion for reference only; actual trading should be based on real-time market conditions. $ETH