Brothers, I just checked the market and I’m completely numb!

Bitcoin plunged 25% from its $126,000 peak, crashing straight down to $94,000. My soda almost spilled all over the keyboard at that moment. What’s worse is all those altcoins—some getting cut in half is already considered lucky, while others evaporated by 80-90%, a real-life “crowded rooftop” drama.

I’ve been in the crypto space since 2017. Back then, I didn’t believe a word about the so-called “four-year bull and bear cycle”—thought it was just something veterans said to fool newbies. But after getting slapped by the market over and over, I finally get it: bull and bear cycles aren’t something you can identify in the moment; you only realize it when you look back later!

This crash looked sudden on the surface, but there were signs all along. Half a month ago, I was furiously warning people in the group, but many were blinded by greed and even mocked me, saying “you’re too timid, the real bull market is still ahead.” How’s that working out now?

At the start of the month, when BTC was consolidating around $110,000, all sorts of shitcoins went crazy, pumping five or ten times higher. I’ve seen this before—at the end of the last bull market, this same parade of “monsters and demons” went wild, then came the sudden crash and all the newbies got rekt.

Sure enough, the market came back with a heavy blow: $19 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated, and the total crypto market cap gave back all the year’s gains. This round really engraved the lesson of “there’s always a knife hidden behind the frenzy” in everyone’s mind.

From a cycle perspective, this drop fits perfectly with historical patterns.