#ETH走势分析 Japan raises interest rates first, and the crypto world crashes first? To understand this, we need to talk about the flow of money.

What does a rate hike mean? The era of borrowing money at zero cost is over. Previously, arbitrage trades were booming—you could borrow yen in Japan at near-zero interest rates and invest it in higher-yielding markets elsewhere. Now, with interest to pay back, paper profits shrink instantly, and the first reaction from institutions is to close positions and run.

U.S. Treasuries play a key role here. Japan holds the largest amount of U.S. government bonds in the world—data from early 2024 shows the scale is about $1.15 trillion. But once the Bank of Japan raises rates, domestic bond yields will rise as well (such as if the 10-year Japanese government bond yield breaks 1%). At that point, there's no need to take on exchange rate risk by holding U.S. Treasuries—it makes more sense to sell them, convert back to yen, and buy domestic bonds.

This triggers a chain reaction: large-scale selling of U.S. Treasuries leads to falling prices and rising yields. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, the cost of borrowing U.S. dollars goes up globally. That's when risk assets suffer. Looking back to the 2020 black swan event, Bitcoin was always the first to get dumped—after all, it's a 24/7 liquidity casino, essentially an unsupported digital asset. As of now, it's still the first thing to be abandoned when capital retreats. $BTC $ETH $SOL