The ADP employment data to be released tonight at 21:15 is definitely not a minor event that can be ignored. With the Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI yet to be announced, this is the only indicator the market can rely on right now.

Currently, expectations for a December rate cut are running hot in the market, but whether the Fed will actually cut rates, and by how much, all depends on what tonight’s employment report shows.

What if the data comes in weak? The market will immediately interpret it as “the job market is cooling, the Fed should act now,” rate cut expectations will heat up, and there’s a high probability that crypto and gold will see a round of sharp gains.

On the other hand, what if the data turns out to be surprisingly strong? Market sentiment will shift to “the job market is stable, the Fed won’t dare to act rashly,” rate cut expectations will be suppressed, and high-flying assets are likely to face correction pressure.

To put it simply—tonight is a critical turning point.

The market may not see extreme surges or crashes, but volatility is inevitable. If you’re holding positions, be sure to manage your risk; if you’re on the sidelines, don’t rush in. Keep a close eye on the strength of the 21:15 minute candle, and it’s not too late to decide based on the market’s initial reaction.