Have you noticed something? The yield on Japan’s 30-year government bond actually started climbing back in 2020. But who cared back then? Yields were hovering near zero, the global money printers were running at full speed, and going from 0% to 2.6% was just a tickle for the markets—stocks soared, crypto went wild, nobody paid it any mind.

Now, things have changed.

Yields aren’t just rising faster—they’ve finally reached an “attractive” level. The Bank of Japan is struggling to hold the line, and when those big institutions run the numbers and see their own bonds becoming worthwhile, of course they’re going to pull back money scattered overseas. How do they do it? By selling US Treasuries and US stocks, directly draining a chunk of global liquidity.

So here’s the question—what does this mean for Bitcoin?

In the short term, when risk-off sentiment hits, the market will tumble, and Bitcoin will likely get caught in the crossfire. But you have to look further ahead: if yields keep squeezing the market and force central banks to open the liquidity floodgates again, hard assets like Bitcoin could become the go-to spot for capital. It’s the kind of asset that “takes the hit first, but laughs last.”

Put simply: during a bull market, even if Japan’s bond yields rise, they’re just background noise—too low to matter. Now that they’re finally “high enough to bite,” they’re starting to siphon off liquidity and suppress risk assets, creating a lot of noise before BTC truly makes a comeback.

My view hasn’t changed: the real start of a new bull market will most likely have to wait until after Q3 2026.