Recently, there’s been a wave of front-running in the market, with traders focusing on two clues: who the next Fed chair will be, and the pile of economic data delayed due to the government shutdown. In essence, these players are positioning themselves early, betting that future policies will be more dovish.

Let’s break down the logic behind this bet. The current market consensus is that rates may fall faster than expected and the liquidity environment will become more favorable. This judgment rests mainly on two pillars:

First, subtle changes in personnel. Trump’s economic adviser Hassett is a strong contender, and if he takes over, the general view is that policy will tilt more dovish. Second, the data vacuum is about to be filled. The delayed jobs report is coming soon, and if the numbers look bad, it would give the rate-cut camp a box of ready-made ammunition.

What does this narrative mean for digital assets? The transmission path is actually quite direct: improved liquidity expectations → increased appeal of risk assets → a potentially more fertile macro environment for the crypto market. Of course, this is a medium-to-long-term perspective; short-term trends still depend on specific catalysts.

That said, the market never moves in just one direction. There are a few risks to watch:

First is the ambiguity during the transition period. While the new and old chairs are switching over, policy signals may be mixed, making the market prone to overinterpretation and volatility naturally spikes. Second is the risk of expectations being dashed. All the current excitement is built on the “Hassett takes over + weak jobs data” combo, and if either part doesn’t meet expectations, sentiment could reverse quickly.

In this situation, a few perspectives may be useful:

First, recognize the essence of the current hype—this rally is about “expectation differentials,” not hard facts. Second, keep a close eye on the upcoming jobs data, as it’s the first checkpoint to verify the “dovish narrative.” Third, maintain tactical flexibility. Before personnel appointments are finalized and data is fully revealed, market sentiment is likely to swing back and forth; position management is more important than chasing the latest trend.

To sum up: traders are betting on a “potentially more dovish” future. We can understand the logic of this playbook, but until the main character actually appears and the plot becomes clearer, it might be wise to stay seated and watch from the audience for now.