#ETH巨鲸增持 $ETH There are quite a few details worth being cautious about in this round of price increases.

In the past 24 hours, the price has surged over 8%, jumping from 2780 all the way past 3040. The candlestick pattern looks pretty strong, but if you look closely at the trading volume, a problem emerges—a classic case of price-volume divergence.

At the 15-minute level, when it hit the 3120 high, trading volume shrank by 10%-18%. On the hourly chart, the bullish candle that broke through 3040 had half the volume of the previous highs. The higher the price goes, the weaker the buying power becomes, which usually isn’t a good sign.

A few key levels to watch:

3120 has been tested multiple times but couldn’t hold, looking more like a false breakout; resistance is even heavier around 3170, where there’s a concentration of historical trading volume and positions waiting to break even, forming a clear resistance zone.

On-chain data shows that large holders’ cost basis is concentrated between 3050-3100. With the price now at the upper end of this range, combined with heightened retail sentiment and the whole market calling for a run to 3200+, it’s actually time to be extra cautious.

A common tactic: push the price up to 3120-3170 to attract momentum chasers, then pull back to 3050-3080 to shake out weak hands. Only after cleaning up the floating supply will there be a real move. This rapid spike is more likely setting the stage for a buildup.

Key things to watch in the next 48 hours:
A breakout above 3170 with strong volume and a steady hold above 3200 would confirm the bullish trend;
If the rally fails to break through on weak volume, a pullback to test support at 3080 or even 3050 is likely;
A direct drop below 2900 is less likely (about 20% chance), as institutional cost lines are providing support.

A word of caution: be careful chasing the rally, keep a close eye on volume changes and key levels, and don’t let short-term impulses leave you holding the bag at the top. When market volatility increases, staying rational is more important than anything else.