#数字货币市场洞察 To be blunt, this Bitcoin rebound looks strong, but it’s actually pretty shaky.

If you’re thinking about entering, pay attention to two levels: can BTC hold 93880, and can it break through 94000? If it holds, even if it pulls back 2% to around 92000, it’s still considered healthy. More importantly, watch to see if BTC enters a “vampire mode”—soaring on its own while dragging all the altcoins down. If this scenario plays out, a medium-scale rebound on the daily chart is underway, with a target range of about 99000 to 100000.

But if it can’t even reach 93880? That’s a sideways market. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has been dropping for over a month. After such a prolonged downtrend, the market usually needs some time to consolidate and digest sentiment. In this phase, those small-cap coins with abnormal volatility are worth watching—whether they surge or crash, there might be opportunities hidden there.

Why does this rally feel so weak? Two reasons.

First, leveraged contract liquidations. Short positions got liquidated in a chain reaction, forcibly pushing the price higher—not driven by real buying power. Second, a supply gap. The previous drop was so steep that there aren’t many sell orders above, so even a bit of buying can punch the price through the ceiling. When trading volume doesn’t keep up with price gains, this kind of divergence is dangerous.

After that quick dip to 84000 on December 2 and the rapid recovery, the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern became obvious. At that point, I closed my short positions and chose to stay on the sidelines. Same goes for the shorts near 91000 earlier—my trading rhythm was based on technical patterns. When the market is quiet, those usually active “traders” are silent, so with less noise, it’s actually easier to see the market structure clearly.

Don’t go too aggressive at this stage. The market signals aren’t fully clear yet—don’t let candlesticks lead you by the nose. You need to have your own sense of balance and play it safe.