On December 2, Trump made the final call—the candidate for the Federal Reserve's last key seat has been decided, bringing the tug-of-war among ten contenders to an end.

As soon as the news broke, the market went wild. On the prediction platform Polymarket, the odds for "the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points next week" instantly soared to 92%, with $219 million pouring into that prediction pool alone. The mood suggests everyone is convinced: the shoe is about to drop.

Why such a strong reaction? Simply put, whoever sits at the Fed essentially sets the tone for upcoming monetary policy. The ten candidates have been deadlocked for so long, and now only the final "key vote" remains. The market is already betting—there’s an overwhelming chance this person is Trump’s preferred "dove." After all, everyone knows Trump has always favored a low-interest-rate environment and has never been a fan of rate hikes.

The ripple effects of this could be huge. If a rate cut really happens, the pressure on the dollar would ease, and risk assets like US stocks and crypto might become active again. On the flip side, will inflation seize the opportunity to rise? The global forex market is likely in for another round of volatility.

All eyes are now on two key points: who the final pick actually is, and what answer next week’s Fed meeting will deliver.

What do you think? Is this rate cut expectation a sure thing, or is the market just getting ahead of itself again?