Trump has spoken again, and the suspense regarding the next head of the Fed may drag on until next year.

During this Tuesday's cabinet meeting, the American president provided a clearer timeline—"The new chairman's candidate will likely be officially announced early next year." Once this was said, the previous statement by Treasury Secretary Basent that "it might be announced before Christmas" basically fell flat. Last weekend, Trump teased that he already had a candidate in mind, but now he has pushed the timeline back.

Predicting market reactions is quite interesting. The odds on Polymarket for "not announcing before the end of the year" surged from 31% to 87%, which shows that everyone seems to believe in this delay. Meanwhile, the probability of Kevin Hassett being nominated remains steady at around 10%, clearly leading other candidates—although rumors have circulated that Trump has already "penciled him in," everyone knows this guy’s style, so he might change his mind any day (if the NASA administrator nomination can be withdrawn at the last minute, what can’t happen?).

The probabilities for the other few runners are pitifully low, basically hovering around 1%: Fed Governor Waller and Bowman, former Governor Warsh, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder are all in a "backup" status. In September, Trump still listed Haskett, Warsh, and Waller as the top three contenders, but it seems the situation has quietly changed. By the way, he has repeatedly hinted at hoping Treasury Secretary Basenet would take over the Fed, but she has politely and firmly declined each time.

Ultimately, selecting the chair of the Fed is the most direct way for the president to influence central bank policy. Trump has been vocal about his criticisms of the current chair, Powell—complaining that interest rate cuts are too slow, disliking the expensive renovations at headquarters, and recently calling him "stubborn as a mule, just opposing the president." Although Powell's term as chair ends next year, he can still serve as a governor for another two years, which is likely a headache for Trump.

No matter who is ultimately chosen, they must pass the Senate hurdle. If the nominee is not the current board member, the new person is likely to receive a full 14-year term—this means that the direction of monetary policy for the next decade or so may depend on this appointment. For the crypto market, the new chair's attitude towards digital assets will be a significant variable.