Powell has dealt the market another cold blow.

Originally, everyone thought that a rate cut in December was certain, but last night the Federal Reserve Chairman directly stated: "A rate cut is not automatic; everything is still up in the air right now." Once this was said, the previously excited investors instantly sobered up—U.S. stocks shook, and risk assets also calmed down.

In simple terms, the current interest rate cut has turned from a "done deal" to a coin toss. Why has the attitude suddenly become so ambiguous? Because the Federal Reserve is trapped: on one hand, the job market is cooling down, while on the other hand, inflation refuses to relent. No matter which direction it goes, it could stumble into a pit.

What's even more troubling is the government shutdown, which has caused many core economic data to be delayed. It's like driving without headlights, relying solely on feel to navigate in the dark; the Federal Reserve certainly dares not make promises lightly.

So what should we do next? To be honest, a rate cut is still possible, but it is definitely not as certain as you think. To see how the market will move next, we need to keep a close eye on three indicators: employment data, inflation trends, and consumer confidence.

If data continues to weaken → interest rate cut expectations will rise again;
If the data withstands the pressure → the market may still have to go through another round of turmoil.

The most practical advice? Don't bet early, and don't celebrate early. The key to the market lies in the data that will be released soon, not in our guesses.