# Palladium's 2025 Roadmap: Why This Precious Metal Could Stay Under Pressure

Palladium has seen better days. After peaking at $3,002/oz back in February 2022, it's been in a gradual decline. Last year it bounced around the $900-$1,100 range, with a brief October spike to $1,200 when the US ramped up sanctions on Russian metals. Now traders are asking: what's next for palladium in 2025?

# # The Auto Sector Dilemma

Here's the core issue—80% of palladium demand comes from car makers who use it in catalytic converters. Problem is, electric vehicles don't need palladium at all. While overall vehicle sales are forecast to grow 1.7% to 89.6 million units in 2025, EV adoption is accelerating faster than expected:

- EV market share hitting 16.7% in 2025 (vs 13.2% in 2024, 7% in 2023)
- But growth is slowing due to charging infrastructure concerns, range anxiety, and grid capacity limits
- A 25% tariff threat from the incoming Trump administration could further dampen vehicle demand

On the flip side, automakers have been switching to platinum as a cheaper alternative, adding more downward pressure.

# # Supply Shock Incoming

Demand isn't the only headwind. The World Platinum Investment Council predicts palladium will shift from deficit to surplus starting 2025, with oversupply potentially hitting 897,000 ounces. Why? Recycled scrap materials are ramping up by 1.2 million ounces, and Russian + South African mine output is returning to historic levels.

# # Price Forecast: Sideways & Lower

Experts aren't bullish. CPM Group's Jeffrey Christian expects palladium to stay rangebound in 2025 but **with a downward bias**—likely $900-$1,000 per ounce. Heraeus Precious Metals is slightly wider, calling for a $800-$1,200 range. The consensus? Weak 2025 ahead for palladium.

The math is simple: weakening auto demand + EV headwinds + supply surplus = structural pressure on prices.