# Why Buffett's Quiet American Express Play Might Be His Smartest Bet Yet

While everyone's obsessing over Berkshire's Apple and the newly disclosed Alphabet stake, there's a $50B elephant in the room that deserves way more attention: American Express.

Here's the thing—Buffett hasn't touched Berkshire's 151.6M AXP shares in *decades*. That's not laziness. That's conviction. Meanwhile, he's been trimming Apple. The message is clear.

**Why AXP is quietly crushing it:**

American Express runs a payments flywheel most competitors can't replicate. It owns the card, the network, AND works directly with merchants. That means rich transaction data → better targeting of high-spenders → premium rewards → pricing power.

The numbers don't lie:
- 2024: Revenue +9% YoY to $65.9B, EPS +25% to $14.01
- Q3: Revenue +11%, EPS +19% (accelerating, not slowing)
- Record card spending, record new acquisitions, record fee revenue
- Returned $7.9B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends)

**The valuation angle:**

Trade at 24x PE—pricey for a financial stock, sure. But Apple's at 36x, Alphabet at 30x. For double-digit revenue growth + fortress balance sheet + consistent capital returns? That's a bargain.

**The catch:**

Economy tanks → spending freezes → credit losses spike. Competition from banks and fintech is brutal. But if you've got a 10-year horizon and can stomach volatility? This is the kind of boring, durable business Buffett actually *loves*—and one that's flying under the radar while everyone chases shiny mega-caps.