Seoul Market Rallies on Rate Cut Bets—What's Driving the Surge?

South Korea’s stock market is on fire. The KOSPI just smashed through 3,960 points after a 2.67% jump yesterday, with all the usual suspects—tech, finance, and industrials—leading the charge. Volume hit 291.5 million shares, and bulls outnumbered bears 771 to 125. The real kicker? Thursday’s open is expected to stay bullish.

Here’s what’s fueling the rally: The Fed is about to cut rates again. CME’s FedWatch Tool now shows an 82.9% chance of a quarter-point cut next month, up from just 30.1% a week ago. That’s a seismic shift in market sentiment. Wall Street caught the fever first—the Dow jumped 0.67%, NASDAQ rallied 0.82%, and S&P 500 gained 0.69%. Asian markets are following suit.

The data story:

• U.S. durable goods orders beat expectations in September
• Jobless claims unexpectedly dropped
• Oil climbed on geopolitical concerns (Russia-Ukraine tensions)
• WTI crude: +1.05% to $58.56/barrel

What’s next for Korea? The Bank of Korea wraps up its policy meeting today. Consensus is they’ll hold rates steady at 2.50%, but investors will be watching the tone. If global rate-cut momentum stays strong, Seoul’s upside could extend.