Two AI Giants Could Dwarf Nvidia's $4.3T Valuation by 2030—Here's Why Meta and Amazon Are the Dark Horses

Nvidia and Palantir Technologies combined are worth roughly $4.7 trillion today, but don’t assume they’ll stay on top. A closer look at market dynamics suggests Meta Platforms and Amazon could each individually eclipse that figure within five years—and the math is surprisingly compelling.

The Math Checks Out

Meta’s Path: Currently valued at $1.6 trillion, it needs a 200% jump to hit $4.8 trillion by late 2030. That translates to ~25% annual returns—ambitious but not unrealistic given its 16% forecasted earnings growth. Here’s the kicker: Meta has beaten earnings estimates by an average of 16% over the last six quarters. If that pattern holds, a 35x P/E multiple (up from today’s 28x) is totally defensible.

Amazon’s Path: At $2.5 trillion now, it needs a more modest 95% increase to reach $4.8 trillion. That’s roughly 14% annual returns, while consensus calls for 19.5% earnings growth. At current 33x P/E, there’s even room for multiple compression to 26x and still hit the target.

Why These Two, Not Apple?

Both are playing AI differently—and that matters.

Meta’s Superintelligence Bet: Mark Zuckerberg isn’t just using AI to squeeze ads (though it’s working—higher engagement, better conversion rates). He’s betting the farm on AR smart glasses powered by superintelligence systems replacing smartphones as primary computing devices. Meta already dominates the nascent space with 73% market share through mid-2025. If that vision lands, Meta becomes the next consumer electronics empire.

Amazon’s Unglamorous Edge: While Meta chases moonshots, Amazon is grinding through operational efficiency. Morgan Stanley estimates fulfillment and logistics costs eat up a third of retail revenue today. AI-powered robotics coordination, natural language interfaces for humans to command robots, and hundreds of generative AI tools across inventory and last-mile delivery could unlock another 300 basis points of operating margin by 2027. Amazon’s already showing progress—operating margin expanded 40 basis points in the first three quarters of 2025 alone.

The Real Story

Both companies are using AI not just to enhance existing businesses, but to restructure entire industries. Meta could own the next computing platform. Amazon could cut logistics costs by a generation. Neither needs to be a lottery ticket—just execute reasonably well on their AI roadmaps, and the numbers work.