Cocoa just got hit hard after Trump's tariff reshuffling. December ICE NY cocoa dropped 0.62%, London cocoa fell 1.47%—the admin dropped 10% reciprocal tariffs on non-US commodities including cocoa, though Brazil cocoa still faces that hefty 40% national-security tariff.

Here's the thing: supply-side signals are actually mixed. Ivory Coast shipments fell 5.7% YoY to 516,787 MT (Oct 1-Nov 16), but West African harvests are looking fat—pod counts up 7% vs 5-yr avg per Mondelez. Ghana and Ivory Coast farmers reporting solid conditions, favorable weather helping bean dry.

Demand side? Weak. Hershey called Halloween chocolate sales "disappointing" (that's 18% of annual US candy). Asia Q3 cocoa grindings tanked 17% YoY to a 9-yr low. Europe Q3 grindings down 4.8% YoY, lowest in a decade. North American chocolate sales volume cratered -21% in 13 weeks ending Sept 7.

But ICE cocoa inventories at US ports hit 7.75-month lows (1.77M bags Friday)—that's bullish. Nigeria production set to drop 11% YoY in 2025/26 to 305k MT.

Bottomline: tariff uncertainty + weak demand pressure prices down, but tight global stocks could provide a floor. ICCO projects a 142k MT surplus for 2024/25 (first in 4 years), a shift from last year's massive 494k MT deficit.