# U.S. Job Market Sending Mixed Signals—Better Claims Data But Hiring Momentum Slowing

The labor market just threw us a curveball this week. First-time jobless claims dropped to 220,000 in the week ending November 15th—beating economist expectations of 223,000. Sounds bullish? Not so fast.

Here's the plot twist: While initial claims are cooling, *continuing claims* just hit a 4-year high at 1.974 million. That's a 28,000 jump week-over-week and the highest level since November 2021. Translation? People who are already unemployed are staying unemployed longer—not a great sign.

The 4-week moving average of continuing claims also climbed to 1.96 million, a near 4-year peak. As Grace Zwemmer from Oxford Economics puts it: "Elevated continued claims tell us we're in a labor market stuck in slow-hiring mode."

There's also the September employment report to digest: Non-farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs (way better than the expected 50,000), BUT the unemployment rate still ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Plus, August's numbers got revised downward to -4,000 from +22,000.

**The read:** Initial claims looking better while continuing claims spike + mixed employment data = a labor market in transition. The Fed's watching closely to see if recent layoff headlines actually translate into mass job losses. So far? The evidence isn't there yet—but the cracks are starting to show.