#数字货币市场回调 💥 24-Hour Observation After Market Fluctuations (Data from December 1st)

Last night's sell-off was indeed fierce, but it's taking a breather now. The overall market capitalization has dropped to $2.95 trillion, down nearly 5 points, but major cryptocurrencies have shown resilience, rebounding between 5% to 8% this morning. The liquidation data is a bit grim—over $500 million evaporated in the past day, most of which were long positions that chased the highs.

🔍 Morning price scan (UTC 10:30 AM)

$BTC is hanging around $86,650, down 5.1% for the week.
$ETH reported 2,838, down 5.7%
$XRP held the 2.04 level, but also dropped 7 points.
SOL dropped to $127 (-7%)
DOGE is now $0.137, a pullback of 8%
BNB stabilizes at the $824 line (-6%)

Bitcoin's market share has rebounded to 58.7%, showing signs of a slight inflow of altcoin funds.

🌐 Several variables of the macro perspective

The rumors of interest rate hikes in Japan are becoming more substantial, and global risk assets are cooling down. The market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are quite high, with the probability soaring to 87%. The Bitcoin spot ETF's ability to attract funds weakened in November, but BlackRock's IBIT scale has already surpassed $70 billion—this figure is still quite impressive. Additionally, Chinese regulations have tightened again recently, putting significant pressure on the stablecoin sector.

📐 How to view it from a technical perspective

After BTC broke below 89,000 at the beginning of the month, it is now hovering around 86,600. Looking upwards, 90,000 is a clear resistance; if broken, it could head straight for 100,000. Looking down, keep an eye on the 80,000 line; if it fails to hold, the 72k to 75k range is likely to be tested.

The expectation for the Fusaka upgrade on the ETH side is brewing, and the technical aspect is somewhat interesting. XRP holding above $2.00 is considered a key signal.

🗞 A few things worth paying attention to

The Brazilian company Méliuz has started incorporating BTC into its treasury reserves. Texas directly purchased $5 million worth of BTC ETF. Japan has just approved a unified 20% tax rate on cryptocurrency earnings. In December, over $1.8 billion worth of tokens are set to be unlocked, which may put selling pressure on the market. Upbit was hacked previously, but it has now resumed operations.

📊 Market Sentiment Tracking

The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 20 - this is the "Extreme Fear" zone. The Altcoin Season Index is at 35, which has not yet reached the explosive phase.

💡 Short-term trading strategy reference

Within 1 to 7 days, ETH, SOL, ADA, and SUI may have rebound opportunities, but stop-loss must be set - once BTC falls below 80k, this judgment will become invalid.

If we shift our perspective to mid-December: if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is realized and the Fusaka upgrade is smoothly implemented, there is a possibility for a continued bull market in Q4. Some predict that BTC could reach between $175,000 and $250,000 by early 2026, of course, this is an optimistic scenario.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The interest rate hike in Japan and regulations in China are two uncertain factors. Given the current volatility, it is safer to control each position to 1-2%.