#十二月行情展望 BTC has fallen below $90,000 again. How will the market perform in December?

At the beginning of December, the crypto market dealt investors a "sucker punch"—Bitcoin plummeted over $4000 in two hours, at one point dropping to $86161, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 5%; Ethereum fared worse, falling over $200 to break the $2900 mark, hitting a low of $2813.20, with a 24-hour drop of over 5.5%. Other coins like Solana and BNB also followed suit, leading to a chaotic market.
This wave of flash crash directly triggered a "bloodbath for the bulls": in the past 4 hours, there were liquidations of $481 million across the network, of which $462 million were long positions, equivalent to the bulls being rubbed against the ground. Within 24 hours, over 198,000 people lost all their principal, and many investors woke up to find their accounts empty.
1. Why did it suddenly flash crash?
4 key factors hit the market panic
1. Domestic regulation sounds the alarm again: The central bank, together with thirteen departments, held an "anti-fraud meeting," clarifying that virtual currencies are illegal financial activities, and stablecoins are also strictly regulated due to anti-money laundering risks. Although no new policies were issued, the "prohibitive stance" has been reinforced again, making the already tense market even more anxious.
2. The macro environment is worrying: The Bank of Japan hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, the first time since 2008; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's rate cut has not yet materialized, and global capital is cautious about rushing into risk assets, which naturally affects cryptocurrencies.
3. Institutional funds have not kept up: Although last week saw net inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, compared to the $2.34 billion net outflow of BlackRock's IBIT single ETF in November, this amount of funds is merely "a drop in the bucket" and cannot support a market rebound.
4. Whales secretly sell: The "ancient whale" of Ethereum, which entered the market in 2016 with a cost of only $203, has sold 7,000 ETH in the past month, making nearly $20 million; also, large holders with over 1,000 BTC are selling ETH in batches. These "old players" leaving the market has directly poured cold water on it.
2. Is there an opportunity hidden in bad news? These two favorable factors in December might save the situation.
Although the market is currently in a slump, there is still hope, as two key positive factors may be on the way:
- The Federal Reserve ends "tapering": Starting from December 1, the Federal Reserve officially stops quantitative tightening (QT) and will no longer withdraw funds from the market. It is important to note that over the past three years, the Federal Reserve has withdrawn $2 trillion, and now "stopping the taper" is equivalent to "loosening" the market, which may gradually warm up liquidity.
- The probability of a rate cut is as high as 87.4%: On December 10, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Currently, the market predicts a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. If the rate cut materializes, funds may flow back into the cryptocurrency market, becoming a "catalyst" for a rebound.
Three, how to move forward at the end of the year? 7 big names provide clear judgments.
Facing the market that is experiencing a "fall", what investors care about the most is: should they sell now or buy the dip? In the last month of 2025, will the market hit bottom and rebound or continue the bear market? Let's take a look at the views of industry leaders:
1. CryptoQuant (research institution): The total supply of stablecoins has surpassed $160 billion, setting a new record, which is the "ammunition depot" for the market. History has shown that after the growth of stablecoins, Bitcoin often rises, and now with sufficient "bullets," it may be ready for a counterattack. 2. MisterCrypto (analyst): The market has already seen a "surrender-style sell-off," but big players are starting to secretly open long positions. This combination of "retail panic, large players bottom-fishing" has often been a signal for a rebound in the past, and Bitcoin may stabilize soon. 3. Arthur Hayes (co-founder of Bit): Boldly predicts that Bitcoin will rise to $250,000 by the end of the year! He believes that $80,600 is the bottom, and now the Federal Reserve is ending tightening and continuing to lower interest rates, coupled with the previous leverage liquidations having "cleansed" the market, there is strong upward momentum.
4. André Dragosch (Bit researcher): The current macro environment is very similar to that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy is about to accelerate growth, but the price of Bitcoin has not kept up yet, leaving a lot of room for future increases.
5. Santiment (Sentiment Platform): Ethereum may rise 7% in the short term, targeting $3200! Because the yield on stablecoins is only 4%, indicating that the market is not overheated and there is still room for growth.
6. Ali (Crypto Analyst): Bitcoin will only rebound after traders have lost over 37%. It has only lost 20% so far, so it may need to endure a bit longer.
7. Matrixport (chart analysis agency): The market is contradictory right now, with low volatility and a retreat of panic, but the price is stuck at a key position. Macroeconomic policies and seasonal patterns point in different directions, so careful judgment is required.
In short, this wave of flash crashes has indeed left many investors panicked, especially those who have been liquidated, feeling both heartbroken and confused. However, the crypto market has always been "high risk, high reward," and panic and opportunity often coexist. The Federal Reserve's policies in December, the liquidity of stablecoins, and the movements of the whales will all affect market direction. If you are a heavily invested trader, don't blindly cut losses; if you are looking to buy the dip, don't rush in either, and perhaps wait for clearer signals. After all, in this market, surviving is more important than making quick money.