What is the market betting on now? The CME FedWatch tool provides the answer - the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 87.4%, while the likelihood of maintaining the status quo has been squeezed down to 12.6%.

More exciting in the coming year: The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points in January is 67.5%, and there is even a 23.2% bet on a direct cut of 50 basis points. Powell's recent statements have clearly shifted to a dovish stance, and key figures such as New York Fed President Williams are also supporting easing policies, making this trend basically a done deal.

What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market? Interest rate cuts = easing, and more money naturally flows towards risk assets. Historical patterns are there; each round of easing cycles pushes these types of assets to surge. Now, with continuous net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, leverage has also been mostly cleared during the previous fluctuations, and both technical and funding aspects have provided signals.

The current focus of discussion is no longer whether to "cut or not," but rather "how fast and how deep to cut." Once the Fed opens the interest rate reduction channel, the release of liquidity will directly affect market risk appetite, which will lead to a fundamental change in the capital allocation logic across the entire cryptocurrency sector.

Which sector do you think will be the first to explode due to this wave of easing expectations? 🚀