The Truth Behind the "Resignation" Rumors of Powell: The Market Game in the Fog of Information

Why an unverified message has caused a stir

Regarding the rumors of "Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's sudden resignation after the emergency meeting at the end of the year," after verification from multiple sources, there is currently no official channel confirming this news. Authoritative financial media such as Reuters and Bloomberg have not published any related reports, and neither the Federal Reserve's official website nor Powell himself has made any statements. The dissemination of this information reflects the sensitive nerves of the market during the year-end liquidity tightness period—when funds become tight, any slight movement can easily trigger an exaggerated reaction.

However, the liquidity value of rumors cannot be ignored. Bitcoin quickly surged from $81,000 to $91,000 during the fermentation of the news, and the dollar index fell in response. This dramatic fluctuation reveals a deeper logic: the market's desire for a shift in Federal Reserve policy has accumulated to a critical point, and any narrative that could change the monetary policy path will become an outlet for sentiment.

Fact sorting: Powell is still in office, but controversies do exist.

According to public information, Powell's term as chairman officially ends in May 2026, and his term as a Federal Reserve governor extends until 2028. However, since the second half of 2025, speculation about his future has indeed been heating up:

• July Controversy: Powell was questioned about misleading statements during his testimony in Congress due to the skyrocketing costs of the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project (from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion). The head of the White House Office of Management and Budget had previously sent a letter requesting an explanation. At that time, Trump and some Republican lawmakers publicly pressured him, even raising the topic of "resignation," but a Federal Reserve spokesperson clearly reiterated that Powell intended to complete his term.

• Continuous "successor" layout: The Trump administration is indeed actively advancing the selection of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman. Treasury Secretary Bessent has begun multiple rounds of interviews since August 2025, and the final shortlist of five candidates was officially announced on November 26.

1. Chris Waller: Current Federal Reserve Governor, predicted ability recognized by Trump's team, highest call.

2. Kevin Hassett: Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, closely related to the president.

3. Kevin Warsh: Former Federal Reserve Governor with rich experience in handling the 2008 crisis.

4. Michelle Bowman: Currently the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, advocating for banking regulatory reform.

5. Rick Rieder: BlackRock's Head of Fixed Income, managing $2.4 trillion in assets.

It is worth noting that all five candidates publicly support continuing to cut interest rates in December, which is highly consistent with the Trump administration's demand for low interest rates. However, TD Cowen analysts point out that they "also place importance on price stability," and if inflation reignites, it may still conflict with Trump's position.

Year-end sensitive window: the dangerous coupling of liquidity tides and information vacuum

Why does the "resignation" rumor have a "credibility illusion" at this point in time? Three compounded factors:

1. Tightest liquidity window: From late December to early January, the triple pressure of year-end bank settlement, corporate tax payments, and cash demand during holidays naturally thins the market depth. According to a UBS report, the December 2025 FOMC meeting faces a data blind spot of "losing two employment reports," which amplifies policy uncertainty.

2. Key Period for Policy Decision: The market is intensely debating whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. There are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding actions in December; if the scheduled timeline is maintained, it means "the committee is willing to make judgments in the absence of complete data." This period of divergence provides narrative space for rumors.

3. Expectations for personnel changes are at a variance: the candidate selection has entered the "final interview stage with the President," and Trump has clearly stated that a decision will be made "before the end of the year." Powell may not necessarily resign, but the market needs to price in the "inevitable change in May 2026" in advance.

Historical Mirror: The True Impact of Personnel Changes is Often Misinterpreted by the Market

The statement in the original text that "Bitcoin fell by 40% when Powell replaced Yellen in 2018" contains factual inaccuracies— the depth of the cryptocurrency market in 2018 is not comparable to today, and the main reason for the crash at that time was the burst of the ICO bubble and the regulatory storm. What is truly worth referencing is:

• Actual scenario in 2018: After Powell took office in February, interest rates were raised 4 times throughout the year, and the market had already priced in the "hawkish chairman" quite thoroughly. The main reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stocks in December 2018 was liquidity contraction and the trade war, rather than the personnel changes themselves.

• Moment of Reappointment in 2022: When Powell received his renomination in November 2021, the U.S. stock market was at a high; the core of the dramatic drop in 2022 was the intensification of inflation due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, forcing the Federal Reserve to initiate an aggressive rate hike cycle. Personnel appointments are the result, not the cause.

Key lesson: The market always overinterprets the "Chairman's personality" while underestimating the decisive power of the "economic cycle." No matter who takes over now, they will face a complex situation of inflation above target and a cooling job market, with the policy path driven more by data than personal preferences.

Current Real Market Environment: The Reality Behind the Greed Index

The rise of Bitcoin from $81,000 to $91,000 has indeed occurred, but one must strip away the influence of rumors to see the essence:

• The US dollar index fell: mainly reflecting the rising expectations for interest rate cuts in December (CME FedWatch tool shows a probability of over 80% for rate cuts), as well as the risk-averse capital flows triggered by the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy.

• Bitcoin Resilience: More reflects institutional allocation demand (continuous net inflow of spot ETFs) and the strengthening of the "digital gold" narrative under expectations of monetary easing.

• Risk Warning: The CNN Greed Index has entered the "Extreme Greed" range, which is highly similar to the sentiment indicators at the local peaks in November 2021 and March 2024.

The operating framework for ordinary investors: Staying clear-headed in the fog of information.

Survival rules during the rumor period:

1. Verify information sources: For any "breaking news," first check the three major sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, and WSJ, while also browsing the Federal Reserve's official website (federalreserve). If there are no authoritative reports within 30 minutes, treat it as a rumor.

2. Position management priority: If the cryptocurrency position exceeds 30% of total assets, regardless of the truth of the news, one should seize the bounce to reduce the position to below 20%. This is not a reaction to the event, but a rational correction to the overheated sentiment.

3. Utilize volatility rather than being utilized by it:

• Crash scenario: If ETH falls below $2,900 due to panic, and BTC falls below $85,000, one can gradually accumulate positions (adding each time it drops by 5%), aiming for candidates who support the certainty of interest rate cuts.

• Surge scenario: If BTC breaks through $95,000, reduce positions to take profit, as the increase under the condition of insufficient liquidity at the year-end is highly fragile.

4. Pay attention to hard indicators:

• Grayscale GBTC premium rate: Turning positive indicates institutional capital inflow.

• Federal Reserve reverse repo scale: If it drops below $50 billion, it indicates a substantial improvement in liquidity.

• Candidate nomination schedule: If Trump announces the final list around December 25, the market will price in the policy path for 2026 in advance.

Conclusion: Information literacy is the core asset that transcends cycles.

Whether Powell resigns is no longer important; what matters is that this rumor tests three major characteristics of the market:

• The thirst for a policy shift has reached a two-year high.

• Year-end liquidity shortage amplifies price fluctuations

• Retail FOMO sentiment diverges from institutional rational reallocation.

The real Alpha opportunity does not lie in betting on personnel changes, but in utilizing the volatility window created by information asymmetry. When the market panics or becomes euphoric amidst rumors, the most sustainable profit logic for ordinary investors is to persist in verifying facts, managing risks, and waiting for trend restarts after data validation. After all, the Federal Reserve changes faces, but the economic laws remain unchanged—hard data such as inflation, employment, and growth are the ultimate arbiters of asset prices. #十二月降息预测 #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边 #反弹币种推荐 $BTC $ETH