Last 18 months of BTC order books tell a clear story.
• White box: pure ambiguity. Bid–ask ratios whipsawed and price chopped in a downward channel until the market priced in a Trump win and broke out.
• Purple box: a neat distribution phase. • Green box: reaccumulation. Equities’ Liberation Day lows lined up with strong bid-side skew and BTC outperformance. • Red box: one large distribution zone. On-chain confirms heavy OG selling, which explains this year’s underperformance and the sharp fade from 120k as entities front-ran obvious target of 150k.
But the current structure is different. We are in a downward selling channel, yet order-book ratios show absorption, not distribution. Some incumbents are clearly willing to step in.
There is a clear handover of supply that has taken place over the last 6 weeks
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Last 18 months of BTC order books tell a clear story.
• White box: pure ambiguity. Bid–ask ratios whipsawed and price chopped in a downward channel until the market priced in a Trump win and broke out.
• Purple box: a neat distribution phase.
• Green box: reaccumulation. Equities’ Liberation Day lows lined up with strong bid-side skew and BTC outperformance.
• Red box: one large distribution zone. On-chain confirms heavy OG selling, which explains this year’s underperformance and the sharp fade from 120k as entities front-ran obvious target of 150k.
But the current structure is different.
We are in a downward selling channel, yet order-book ratios show absorption, not distribution. Some incumbents are clearly willing to step in.
There is a clear handover of supply that has taken place over the last 6 weeks
Looks constructive to me imo
#BTC