Can you really make money with presale investments? Understanding the reality based on data from 2024.

In the crypto community, I often hear the talk about being able to aim for 100 times returns by participating in pre-sales, but what is the reality of the situation?

The Gap Between Dreams and Reality

Indeed, in history, there have been projects like SHIB (2020) that achieved a 1000x return. However, this is truly a rare case. As of 2024, with the market having matured, the probability of such returns being readily available is close to zero.

Thinking in more realistic numbers:

• 20 to 50 times: For example, Tamadoge (2022) achieved 19 times, and Lucky Block (2022) achieved 60 times. However, such cases are also on the decline.
• 2 to 10 times: This is the mainstream zone for successful projects. ENS (2023) is 4 times, which is sufficient profit.
• Break-even point or loss: Rather, this is more common. The majority of projects fall below expectations.

The Pitfalls of “Paper Profits”

The important thing is here. Just because the value of the token has doubled on the screen, it doesn't mean that the profit is realized.

The existence of a vesting schedule is troublesome. Pre-sale purchasers can usually only unlock tokens gradually. In other words:

• Even if the token price rises, it cannot be fully liquidated.
• There are many projects with a cliff period (initially not sellable at all).
• It is easy to think “I should have sold back then” during a market surge.

Five Factors That Influence Earnings

1. Foundation of the Project The quality of the white paper, the team's background, and the robustness of the technology. If these are weak, no matter how much hype there is, it will collapse.

2. Macro Market Conditions If Bitcoin is in a bullish market, the overall boat rises. In a bearish market, it faces headwinds. This has a significant element of luck.

3. Tokenomics Total supply, allocation ratios for team/community/liquidity pool. Be cautious of projects where the supply is too high or the team holds 90%.

4. Community and Hype Buzz on social media and support from influencers are actually significant factors in price increases. Projects that attract whales tend to have a higher market valuation.

5. Exit Strategy When to sell. This is the most difficult and the most important.

Realistic Selling Strategy

Quick Flip Sell immediately after the surge right after the launch. It can be profitable, but there is a risk of cutting losses during a price crash.

Phase Selling (Reverse Dollar Cost Averaging) Sell 25% of your holdings at 2x → Sell another 25% at 3x… in this way, balance profit-taking and holding. The most stable.

Long-term Hold (HODL) Believe in the intrinsic value of the project and hold for several years. It requires a mental fortitude to withstand volatility, but the returns upon success are maximized.

Sell after vesting ends Aim for the period when selling pressure stabilizes after the lock-up release. It is necessary to read market sentiment.

Essential Items for Risk Management

• Fraud cases: Gather funds and disappear. It is essential to verify the security audit report and investigate the team's transparency.
• Volatility: A 50% fluctuation within 24 hours is not uncommon. It is essential to invest within a psychologically bearable range.
• Lack of Liquidity: After the launch, if the exchange has low liquidity, it can lead to a significant price drop during large sell-offs.
• Regulatory Risk: With the tightening of security regulations, there is also the possibility of unexpected delisting.

In the end, is presale investment worth it?

To be honest, it depends on the way:

✅ Worth doing:

• Have a risk tolerance (invest with funds you can afford to lose)
• Can thoroughly research
• Invest in multiple projects through portfolio diversification
• A clear exit strategy can be established.

❌ Avoid:

• Investment with the mindset of aiming for 100x
• Entering without even reading the white paper
• Investing with living expenses or debt
• To believe in influencer recommendations as they are.

Finally

1000 times is a dream. 20 to 50 times is also rare. 2 to 10 times is realistic. But compared to traditional investments, it's a sufficient return.

The issue is how to find projects that can actually reach those profits. With the maturation of the market, only projects with real use cases and development progress will survive, rather than mere pump schemes.

To ride the next wave, you need to read data, investigate teams, and thoroughly manage risks—it's simple, but this is all there is.