📊 Latest market situation of Bitcoin on November 28 midday #BTC

Currently, Bitcoin is in a "strong consolidation phase after breaking through key resistance." The market launched a counterattack on the night of November 27, with Bitcoin surging over 4% to break through $91,000, resulting in over 100,000 liquidations within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount reaching $301 million. This rebound is driven by three main factors:
• Technical Analysis: Bitcoin has pulled back from its yearly high of $126,000 to $80,843 (a drop of over 35%), indicating a demand for a rebound from oversold conditions.
• Policy aspect: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December has risen to 84.9%, boosting the preference for risk assets.
• Capital flow: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for two consecutive days, reducing selling pressure.
Short-term direction determination:
• If the volume breaks through the resistance zone of $92,000-$93,000 (the high neckline from 4 hours ago), it may trigger a short squeeze towards testing $95,000-$98,000.
• If it falls below the support of $89,000 (the breakout conversion point), it may retest the range of $86,700-$87,200.
• Target Outlook:
• Q1 2025: 98,000 → 102,500 USD
• Halving cycle in 2026: above $110,000
⚠️ Key Risk Warning
1. Political connection risk: Nobel laureate Paul Krugman warns that Bitcoin prices are highly correlated with Trump's approval rating (currently only 38%), and political uncertainty exacerbates volatility.
2. Futures leverage risk: Approximately $650 million in short stop-loss orders are clustered at $94,000, a breakout could trigger a short squeeze, but failure will lead to long liquidations.
3. Time window risk: The release of US PCE data this Friday may change the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, it is recommended to keep positions ≤5% before the data.
The above analysis is based on publicly available data and technical indicators and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, and decisions should be made with caution. $BTC