#ETH Interest Rate Cut Probability Analysis

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has significantly decreased from 90% a month ago, and the current uncertainty is high. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the minutes from the November 20 meeting showed a huge divergence within the Fed regarding rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropping to 32.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 67.3%. However, after the release of the September non-farm payroll data, the probability of a rate cut rebounded from 25% to 40%. Despite support for a rate cut from officials like San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, some committee members remain cautious, and ahead of the December policy meeting, data such as the Beige Book and ISM PMI will be released, which may further influence the rate cut decision. The current market expectations for a rate cut are still in a state of fluctuation.