The true face of the prediction market is coming into view. While Polymarket aims for a valuation of 10 billion dollars, research from Columbia University has revealed an inconvenient truth – approximately 25% of transactions may be wash trading (self-dealing), which is shocking.

It seems that during hot events like presidential elections or sports finals, this ratio can jump up to 60%. In other words, the market's "activity level" may be more hollow than it appears.

However, if you look at it calmly:

• **Industry Comparison**: Over 70% of early unregulated Bitcoin exchanges, and the NFT market is between 20% to 50%. 25% of Polymarket is at a "moderate" level.
• **Regulatory Developments**: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a non-enforcement letter in September. The prediction market is shifting from the "gray zone" to "visualized regulation."
• **Capital inflow**: ICE invests $2 billion, Google integrates Polymarket data into search results. Confirmation of joining mainstream finance.

As pointed out by former AWS engineers, what is more important than inflating trading volume is "prediction accuracy" and "market quality." Polymarket's monthly trading volume in October exceeded 3 billion Dollars, with users increasing by 93.7% compared to September. The numbers do not lie.

The Trump administration's deregulation, direct investments from the Trump family, and the entry of Truth Social—politics and money are mainstreaming prediction markets. They are no longer a peripheral form of gambling but are being implemented as the next-generation risk pricing infrastructure.

I guess this trend can't be stopped.