Can BTC hold the key level at $103,500?

This week's weekly closing is a critical moment. Traders point out:

📊 **Technical Crisis Signals**
- The 50-week EMA is at $100,940, and a drop below that is concerning.
- The daily chart may trigger the 4th "death cross" of this cycle (50-day SMA crossing below 200-day SMA)
- Every death cross is accompanied by mean reversion, but the reaction at the 365SMA is currently muted.

⚠️ **Bullish Dilemma**
The pressure from the giant whale's continuous sell-off has not eased, and institutional demand has disappeared. The market originally expected that the end of the U.S. government shutdown this weekend would provide a boost, but the expectations fell through — BTC is still consolidating around $102,000.

💡 **Where is the turning point**
If the U.S. trade tariff resolution or government shutdown is truly resolved, risk assets are expected to rebound. However, before that, bulls need to hold their ground at the weekly close.

In one sentence: This week's closing is the watershed; if we hold above 100K+, there is still a chance.