Bitcoin in complete confusion: whales leaving, small investors buying

Bitcoin is going through a remarkable period of uncertainty. Since October, the leading cryptocurrency has dropped by 15% in a few weeks, but what really worries analysts is the massive divergence between two camps of investors.

The alert signal: whales against small holders

Santiment data reveals a troubling phenomenon. While small investors are filling their portfolios on the dip (classic “buy the dip” strategy), whales are silently liquidating 32,500 BTC since October 12. This is exactly the opposite of what we should be seeing.

Historically, smart money always follows the whales, not the other way around. This divergence currently observed? It strangely resembles the distribution phases before a major correction.

The numbers that send shivers down your spine

• Bitcoin plummeted from $115,000 to $98,000 in mid-November
• Spot ETFs recorded $4.34 billion in outflows over four weeks
• The enthusiasm for institutional flows vanished as quickly as it had arrived.

The key question: do whales see a deeper correction approaching? Or are they simply testing the resistance levels?

Consolidation or resume the path towards $130,000?

Experts are divided. Analysts at Bitfinex talk about a prolonged consolidation phase with persistent volatility. The sharp rise to $125,000 in October was mainly based on the euphoria of ETF inflows, but this momentum collapsed in the face of macroeconomic shocks.

However, Jake Kennis from Nansen tempers his pessimism: a new ATH remains possible if the momentum changes decisively. This will largely depend on the restart of ETF flows (should aim for > 1 billion per week) and a macroeconomic easing.

Bottom line

Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $85,000 and $90,000 in a fragile structure. Whales are selling (bad sign), ETFs are calming down (neutral), and small investors are buying (often a bad timing). To watch: if the whales regain their positions AND the ETFs reopen, $130,000 becomes plausible again. Otherwise, prepare for more turbulence.